The bulk of the MLB season of 2022 is now in the books. We are aware of which teams are predicted to do well the remainder of the year and which teams are predicted to perform poorly.
Future success for the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Mets, and Braves is certain. So are the Padres after acquiring reliever Josh Hader from the Brewers and Juan Soto from the Nationals. Right now, this makes it challenging to uncover value by just betting the MLB moneyline.
This late in the season, playing the totals can be a nice strategy to uncover some value. Therefore, let’s first look at the teams who are more likely to go OVER or UNDER at home or on the road before moving on to the teams that are more lucrative for each scenario.
If you’re new to baseball betting or need a reminder on how to bet on the MLB, read our How To Bet On Baseball guide.
The top OVER/UNDER teams at home and away are as follows:
MLB’s Top Over/Under Teams at Home and Away
Best OVER bets at home
|Team||Home OVER Record|
|Milwaukee Brewers||25-20-1 (55.6%)|
|New York Mets||26-21-1 (55.3%)|
|Miami Marlins||26-22-2 (54.2%)|
|St. Louis Cardinals||26-22-2 (54.2%)|
|Cincinnati Reds||30-26 (53.6%)|
Best UNDER bets at home
|Team||Home UNDER Record|
|Houston Astros||29-19-2 (60.4%)|
|San Diego Padres||30-20-1 (60.0%)|
|Arizona Diamondbacks||30-20-4 (60.0%)|
|Los Angeles Angels||29-22-3 (56.9%)|
|Minnesota Twins||26-20-5 (56.5%)|
Best OVER bets at road
|Team||Road OVER Record|
|Minnesota Twins||29-20-3 (59.2%)|
|Philadelphia Phillies||29-23 (55.8%)|
|Atlanta Braves||24-20-2 (54.5%)|
|Washington Nationals||25-21-3 (54.3%)|
|Kansas City Royals||27-23-2 (54.0%)|
Best UNDER bets at road
|Team||Road UNDER Record|
|Detroit Tigers||34-16-4 (68.0%)|
|Houston Astros||33-18-3 (64.7%)|
|Pittsburgh Pirates||30-19-3 (61.2%)|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||29-20-4 (59.2%)|
|Oakland Athletics||30-21-3 (58.8%)|
The Best Home and Away OVER/UNDER Teams’ Key Points
These tables provide some important insights.
The top five teams’ road UNDER percentage is the first factor to consider. The UNDER has been hit by Detroit in 68 percent of their road games. I’ll play spoiler here before we get to the top five lucrative clubs in each category: With a road UNDER record of 34-16-4, Detroit would have made $1,465.43 in profit.
When you consider San Diego has the eighth-best offensive in baseball with 478 runs on the season, going UNDER 60% of the time is a bit of a surprise. However, as seen by the fact that the Padres hit the UNDER 60% of the time at home, their offensive stagnates there. This season, their 209 runs scored at Petco Park rank as the eighth-worst home offense in MLB. San Diego at home this year would have paid out $734.37 if you had wagered on the UNDER.
With odds of +2200, San Diego presently has the eighth-best World Series chances.
MLB’s Most Profitable OVER/UNDER
The following is a look at the top five most lucrative clubs in baseball when it comes to the OVER/UNDER totals both at home and when they are playing away from their stadium.
Most Profitable OVER Bets at home
|Team||Home OVER Profits|
|New York Mets||25-20-1 ($287.29)|
|Milwaukee Brewers||26.21-1 ($269.78)|
|St. Louis Cardinals||26-22-2 ($170.43)|
|Cincinnati Reds||26-22-2 ($144.02)|
|Miami Marlins||30-26 ($122.23)|
Most Profitable UNDER Bets at home
|Team||Home UNDER Profits|
|Arizona Diamondbacks||29-19-2 ($755.63)|
|Houston Astros||30-20-1 ($744.71)|
|San Diego Padres||30-20-4 ($734.37)|
|Los Angeles Angels||29-22-3 ($445.17)|
|Seattle Mariners||26-20-5 ($367.51)|
Most Profitable OVER Bets at road
|Team||Road OVER Profits|
|Minnesota Twins||29-20-3 ($690.10)|
|Philadelphia Phillies||29-23 ($291.97)|
|Kansas City Royals||24-20-2 ($200.43)|
|Atlanta Braves||25-21-3 ($184.54)|
|Washington Nationals||27-23-2 ($174.00)|
Most Profitable UNDER Bets at road
|Team||Road UNDER Profits|
|Detroit Tigers||34-16-4 ($1,465.43)|
|Houston Astros||33-18-3 ($1,182.80)|
|Pittsburgh Pirates||30-19-3 ($851.87)|
|St. Louis Cardinals||29-20-4 ($675.40)|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||30-21-3 ($664.56)|
Especially when teams are away, profit margins strongly favor the UNDER in this situation. By placing a $100 bet on the UNDER for every away game played by Detroit and Houston, respectively, bettors would have made $1,465.43 and $1,182.80 in profit.
However, Minnesota is the one team in the OVER tables that jumps out. For their road games, a $100 bet on the OVER would have resulted in a $690.10 profit. That exceeds the average profit margin of $253.48 for betting on the OVER with either the top five home or away teams.
The Twins offense, which sits 13th in MLB behind Houston with 470 runs on the season, isn’t terrible, but it really shines away from home. With 259 road runs, Minnesota is sixth in the league among away teams.
These data tables should enable you to make some profitable MLB wagers for the remainder of the season.
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