Baseball is returning after a long winter. MLB betting is also available. Keep an eye on our MLB odds to see what your favorite teams have in store for the 2022 season.
The lockout caused some concern, but the season will resume on April 7 and will include 2,430 games over the course of six months.
Baseball Betting Strategies for 2022
Baseball is a moneyline sport, as opposed to football and basketball, where the bulk of bets are based on the point spread. There are prop bets and run line bets available, but they are not as popular. This implies that bettors must choose just who wins the game and not who covers the spread.
If gamblers want to simply predict which team will win each game, they may use our daily MLB selections to place educated prop bets throughout the season.
When betting the moneyline, you have the choice of taking either the favorite or the underdog. Be warned that if you bet the favorite, you will win less money than you risked, but winning an underdog bet will (typically) return more money than you invested. More on how to read moneyline odds may be found here.
And, although it’s less prevalent, you may bet on the “spread,” which is referred to as the run line in baseball betting and is nearly always -1.5 runs for the favorite with varied odds.
You may also bet on the over/under (or total), which is a betting on how many runs will be scored in the game, similar to other sports.
Baseball betting is also distinguished by its lengthy, drawn-out schedule. With so many games were played every day (2,430 regular-season games in a typical season), wiseguys have apparently limitless opportunity to gain an advantage.
Here are 10 simple ways to assist you generate a profit this MLB season if you want to optimize yours.
10 Baseball Betting Strategies
1. Big Favorites Should Be Avoided
Baseball betting oddsmakers are well aware that casual bettors like taking favorites. As a consequence, they will take advantage of public prejudice and color their lines appropriately. This implies that popular teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, and Dodgers will always be overvalued since “average Joes” will wager on them.
Whenever the favorites win, your winnings are tiny. However, when they lose, you are shattered. Simply said, the squeeze isn’t worth the juice.
2. Profit from Plus-Money Underdogs
To break even on sports betting football and basketball spreads, bettors must win 52.4% of the time (assuming -110 juice). However, if MLB bettors avoid strong favorites and regularly select plus-money underdogs (+120, +150, +170), they may win at a lower-than-50% rate while still finishing the year with a profit. When dogs lose, you only lose what you were willing to risk. But when they win, you get crucial extra money.
Since 2008, our Sports Insights MLB Best Bet choices have gone 3,005-3,378 (47.1%) against the spread/moneyline. That win rate amounts to +202.7 units gained since we nearly always choose undervalued plus-money dogs. This implies that if you had wagered $100 on each moneyline Best Bet since 2008, you would have made a $20,270 profit.
3. Bet Against the Crowd
We’ve been extolling the virtues of betting against the public for years. We prefer to be contrarian because the public usually loses. The average Joe makes his bets based on instinct. They are constantly interested in betting on favorites, home teams, big franchises, and teams with star players.
They are also subject to recency bias. They’ll wager if a squad looked excellent in the previous game. They’ll fade it if it looks bad. By being contrarian, we may take advantage of public prejudice and artificially inflated data. We also put ourselves on the side of the books as an extra bonus. We are all aware that the house usually wins.
Since 2007, our Sports Insights MLB Contrarian picks, which mostly concentrate on dogs receiving less than 40% of moneyline bets in the night’s most highly bet games, have gone 2239-2873 (43.8%). Again, a losing record, but the plus-money distributions have resulted in +193.3 units won.
4. Track Reverse Line Movement
Baseball isn’t only about taking big money dogs and going against the grain. You also want to be on the cutting edge of every game (with the professional bettors who have a long track record of success). Following Reverse Line Movement (RLM), which occurs when the betting line moves in the opposite direction as the betting percentages, is one of the finest methods to find sharp activity.
Assume the Cubs begin at -150 versus the Brewers (+130). Chicago receives 75% of moneyline bets, but the Cubs have dropped from -150 to -135, while the Brewers have risen from +130 to +115. Why would the bookmakers lower the line in order to offer public Cubs bettors a better number? Because the Brewers were dealt with harshly. Even though Milwaukee only receives 25% of bets, the line has shifted in their favor.
During 2005, MLB clubs (including favorites and underdogs) who received less than 35% moneyline bets with an RLM of at least one cent have gone 4028-5123 (44%), +16.1 units won.
It becomes much better if you increase the RLM to 10 cents or higher. Following this technique since 2005, a $100 bettor would have gained more than $8,700.
5. Concentrate on Divisional Dogs
Since MLB teams within the division play each other considerably more often, it builds familiarity and levels the playing field, which advantages the dog always. Since 2005, all underdogs in divisional games (think Red Sox vs. Yankees) have lost 72.1 units, while dogs in non-divisional games have lost an incredible 645.7 units.
If we add two additional qualifiers, divisional dogs in baseball betting perform much better: A high total and road teams come first (the public overvalues home-field advantage, inflating the worth of visitors) (8.5 or more). More volatility results from higher anticipated run totals, which benefits underdogs. Since 2005, this system has generated an astounding +71.2 units.
6. Understand the Weather
Baseball betting offers value on totals even though the bulk of wagers are made on the moneyline. The weather, especially the wind, is a significant issue to take into account when making a total wager. We’ve discovered using Bet Labs that the under has gone 960-781-89 (55.1%) when the wind is blowing in at 5 mph or higher, resulting in 117.6 units gained and a 6.4% ROI.
Whenever the wind comes in, home runs may become warning-track outs, favouring unders. When it blows out, it may convert fly balls into home runs and favor overs. When the wind is blowing at 8 mph or greater, the over has gone 1,174-1,045-125 (52.9%), winning 84.59 units for a 3.6% ROI since 2005.
7. Understand the Umpires
We don’t encourage betting only on umpires, but knowing who’s behind the plate allows gamblers to capitalize on noticeable habits. Finally, umpires are human. Some succumb to pressure and are swayed by the crowd, which favours home teams.
OKbet has all MLB umpire betting statistics from 2005.
Others thrive on the vitriol of the audience, which helps road teams. Some pitchers have a narrow strike zone, which results to more walks, runs scored, and overs. Some feature large strike zones, which results in more strikeouts and hit balls in play, benefiting unders.
Since 2005, when Lance Barksdale is calling balls and strikes, home teams have gone 289-193 (60%), +53.3 units, and 11.1% ROI.
Whenever ‘Cowboy’ Joe West is at the bat, dogs have gone 248-276 (47.3%) but have won +47.3 units, for a 9.4% ROI.
Unders have gone 254-190-25 (57.2%), +46.75 units won, and 10% ROI when Ron Kulpa is the home-plate umpire.
8. Purchase the Best Line
One of the common errors inexperienced bettors make when it comes to baseball betting is using just one sports betting site. This is a horrible concept since it requires bettors to take the number offered by their book. Instead, we recommend having numerous accounts at other books so you may shop for the best line.
Assume you wish to wager on the Kansas City Royals. OKbet has Royals at +130, also OKbet has them at +135. You just gained an extra 5 cents for free by having access to more than one book. It may not seem to be a significant problem at first, but it may make a huge impact in the long term, resulting in higher payouts and lower losses.
9. Accept Volume Betting
Among the most important aspects of long-term MLB betting success is keeping disciplined and restricting your bets to the most valuable games of the day. Baseball, on the other hand, is one of the rare games where high volume sports betting results in higher earnings.
If you use a sports betting system with a 2% ROI, you may expect to make roughly 486 bets on MLB and 51 bets on NFL (we picked these values by taking 20% of each sport’s total regular-season games played: 256 in NFL, 2,430 in MLB).
Even though the ROIs are same, the large mass of baseball wagering results in far greater units gained (a 2% ROI would result in a profit of +9.72 units in MLB whereas a 2% ROI would result in a profit of +1.02 units in NFL).
A $500 wager on every MLB play ($500 x 9.72 units) would complete the year with a profit of $4,860. A $500 NFL bettor with the same 2% ROI, on the other hand, would earn just $510 ($500 x 1.02 units). Simply explained, the sheer volume of baseball betting results in a profit that is 9.5 times that of football betting.
10. Manage your bankroll and stay away from parlays and teasers
One of the most important elements to long-term success is sound money management. At Sports Insights, we promote the use of a flat-betting strategy, where each play is identical and always has a one-unit (1u) risk. Additionally, we advise betting 1% to 5% of your money every play. 1% or 2%, if you want to be cautious. 4% to 5% if you want to be a bit more aggressive. A nice middle is 3%.
This implies that you would wager $3 every game if you had a $100 starting bankroll. There will always be ups and downs, but if you maintain discipline in managing your bankroll, it will prevent you from losing a lot of money when you go through a difficult period while also positioning you for a favorable ROI over the long term.
We also advise against placing wagers like parlays. Public gamblers are drawn in by the enormous prizes and the thought of converting $5 into $100. The fact is that the bookies really profit handsomely from parlays and teasers because they can get away with delivering egregiously unfair odds while masking them with such big payouts.
We advise sticking to wagers on certain games. Winning one bet is challenging enough. By adding more games to a wager, all you’re doing is increasing risk and decreasing your odds of succeeding.
MLB Betting Sites
Most sportsbooks will provide a 20 cent line +105 on the underdog, -125 on the favorite for baseball betting. OKbet Sportsbook often offers 10 cent odds, which means that if the favorite is -125, the underdog is +115.
This may make a significant impact during the season. Shop around to find which betting site offers the most value for your money. However, OKbet is an excellent choice for baseball betting.
For more news and update regarding your favorite Team/Player just go to OKbet Sportsbook or visit OKbet.com.
